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On a bright December day, 61 new graduates crossed the stage at a huge Baptist church north of Nashville. For the relatively small class from the Academy at Old Cockrill, the ceremony was spirited and loud.

Graduates from the Academy at Old Cockrill in December, via Facebook

It marked a milestone for students who struggled to get through, like 18-year-old Farris Leftwich, whose dad has heart trouble and diabetes.

“This is his last wish before he sees the grave,” Leftwich says, “to see me walk across the stage.”

After the ceremony, exultant families lingered until they almost had to be shooed out.

If the state of Tennessee were a high school, a decade ago it could’ve been labeled a dropout factory; a little more than half the state’s students graduated on time. Newer data puts the rate at close to 80 percent, though it’s not exactly clear how the state made so much progress.

The governor often touts research saying Tennessee is one of just two states to make double-digit gains over the last decade (see the 2012 report here). The study’s author, Robert Balfanz of the Everyone Graduates Center at Johns-Hopkins University, says what exactly Tennessee did to skyrocket its grad rate is a bit murky: “It needs to be studied more, right?”

Uneven data

There’s no one program you can credit for the epic gains. And the data can be slippery, Balfanz cautions, because states have taken awhile to get on the same page in their calculations.

“Sort of, measure grad rates how you want to measure it,” he laughs, “and tell us what you found.”

For instance, Balfanz says schools aren’t always consistent in how they tally up dropouts – who hurt their averages – as opposed to kids who transfer – who the schools can factor out. Some districts charitably assume many who leave are transfers. To help keep them honest, this year a bill in Tennessee would require them to get proof.

Concerns over uneven data aside, Education Commissioner Kevin Huffman believes the state’s meteoric rise is real.

“That’s certainly what it looks like from the record-keeping. It looks like we actually have a much higher graduation rate than we did ten years ago.”

Huffman is careful to note the state did a lot before he came on board in 2011. And he credits the federal No Child Left Behind law for spurring a cultural shift toward intervention, to keep kids from leaving.

“I had one district superintendent say to me, at this point you have to almost be obstinate to not graduate from his high school, because they have so many people swarming students who seem like they’re at risk of not graduating.”

Tennessee also tied enrollment to getting a driver’s license.

Another chance

Then there are programs for students who fall behind, or maybe even drift away for awhile, like 19-year-old Carlos Guillen. Guillen is the first in his family to graduate, but he actually dropped out for a couple months before enrolling at the Academy at Old Cockrill.

“Well, we’re Salvadorian, and back there if you don’t go to school, you work,” Guillen says. “I had a job at the moment, but then I got fired and was just at home basically like a bum, so… there’s really nothing good on TV, there’s really nothing to do or anything, so it was really worth it.”

Metro has been growing similar non-traditional schools in recent years, giving many like Guillen another chance to earn a diploma. Ironically, they don’t always help boost the state’s overall graduation rate, says Principal Elaine Fahrner.

“Half the students we graduated today don’t count. They took four years and a semester. They took a little longer.”

Fahner argues the statistics aren’t the bottom line for her program. A graduate is a graduate, she says.

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