Going Negative Carries Risk in Three-Way GOP Primary for Governor

A Vanderbilt political scientist says the Republican primary race for governor could get messy when candidates take their attacks on each other to the airwaves. Early voting for the August primary starts July 16.
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They’ve been slamming each other on the campaign trail for months, and now with the primary looming, negative advertisements are likely on the way. Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam has been the primary target. He’s facing challenges from state Senate Speaker Ron Ramsey and Chattanooga Congressman Zach Wamp.

Vanderbilt professor John Geer says that three-way race makes attack ads particularly dangerous. Geer says going negative is always playing with fire, because it draws criticism and hurts the attacker as well.

“In the general election when you only have a Democrat running against a Republican, attack politics works a little bit more cleanly, but in a three-candidate race it becomes much more difficult. Let’s say that Wamp decides to attack Haslam first. The real beneficiary could be Ramsey.”

But Geer says whichever candidate makes it through the primary will emerge battle-tested for this fall’s general election.

Geer cited the 2008 Democratic primary as an example:

“Just think about the tough battle that Barack Obama had with Hillary Clinton. That made him a better candidate and got him ready for a tough campaign against John McCain. Without Hillary Clinton, I don’t think Barack Obama would have been president.”

So Geer says a hard-hitting primary fight among Republicans might not be good news for Democatic challenger Mike McWherter.